30 SEPTEMBER 2013

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Article from BTNews 30 SEPTEMBER 2013

Airbus predicts

John Leahy, effectively Sales Director of Airbus, was in fine form in London last week as he predicted that the world would require 29,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

In an outstanding presentation he gave his normal little digs at Boeing but did praise the 747, and then adding it had been in service for 40 years.  Called ‘Future Journeys’ it looked at growth in regions, fuel costs and the emergence of what was termed “mega cities”.  By 2025 these will increase by 50% to 96 centres with over 5m population. 

“By 2032, Asia-Pacific will lead the world in traffic overtaking Europe and North America”, said Mr Leahy.  “Today on average, a fifth of the population of the emerging markets take a flight annually and by 2032, this will swell to two thirds.  The attraction of air travel means that passenger numbers will more than double from today’s 2.9bn to 6.7bn by 2032”. 

Airbus says that in the next 20 years air traffic will grow at 4.7% annually requiring over 29,220 new aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion.  Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones.  With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.

A finely produced hard copy version is available. www.airbus.com

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