26 SEPTEMBER 2011

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Article from BTNews 26 SEPTEMBER 2011

Airbus Global Market Forecast

John Leahy, effectively Sales Director of Airbus, was in fine form last week when he gave the annual “State of the Nation” Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 in London. 

Of all the plethora of statistics and data given perhaps the most interesting was a statement that the airlines are consuming just 3% more fuel than 10 years ago and carrying 45% extra passengers.  Airbus did not give predictions for a decade ahead but with the average size of aircraft increasing year by year (with the arrival of more A380s) the fuel burn could be negative by 2020.  Along the same “environmentally friendly” lines he noted that average passenger load factors had risen from paltry 54% at the start of the 747 era 40 years ago to 78% in 2009 and rising.

Airbus sees a demand for 27,800 aircraft with 100+ seats over the next 20 years.  Asia-Pacific will account for 34% of demand, followed by Europe and North America both with 22%.  The Middle East only represents 7% of the actual aircraft order backlog.  Whilst these figures are in general agreement with Boeing, Toulouse says the demand for Very Large Aircraft will be for 1,780, far in excess of Seattle. www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2010

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