Demand for air travel to drop

A dip in long-term demand for air travel despite a doubling in total passenger numbers by 2034 was forecast last week by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Its updated passenger growth forecast predicted passenger numbers are expected to reach 7bn over the next two decades, with a 3.8% average annual growth in demand using 2014 as baseline year. The figure is more than double the 3.3bn who flew in 2014 and exactly twice as many as the 3.5bn expected in 2015.      

IATA said the downgrade of its original forecast of 7.4bn passengers in 2034 based on a 4.1% average annual growth rate reflected “negative developments in the global economy” that were expected to dampen demand for air transport, especially slower economic growth projections for China.

The association said the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year will be China (758m new passengers for a total of 1.196bn), the US (523m / 1.156bn), India (275m / 378m), Indonesia (132m/219m) and Brazil (104m / 202m).

Seven of the 10 fastest-growing markets in percentage terms are expected to be in Africa – Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia. 

Serbia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam are the others.  www.iata.org/pax-forecast

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